EEF Dota 2 Qualifier 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Израильloss 0:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Польшаwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Израиль
No games played over 6 months.
Польша
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
660 picks · 519 bans
Marci
477 picks · 703 bans
Dawnbreaker
442 picks · 610 bans
Puck
434 picks · 896 bans
Winter Wyvern
343 picks · 419 bans
Zeus
296 picks · 389 bans
Death Prophet
279 picks · 469 bans
Razor
276 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Израиль
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Польша
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Израиль 43%Польша 57%
The model gave 57% on Польша — the game was taken by Польша.
Model check result
Model favoriteПольша · 57%
Series resultПольша 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1