Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionJMJedi Mind Tricksloss 1:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
0021win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Jedi Mind Tricks
Hoodwink
lukiluki · 2 games
Clinkz
Shoe · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Sonic · 1 game
Tiny
Sonic · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
Shoe · 1 game
021
Abaddonoften banned
Ark · 2 games
Snapfire
Steelborco · 2 games
Hoodwink
Steelborco · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
Ark · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
788 picks · 535 bans
Tiny
563 picks · 399 bans
Tusk
534 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
530 picks · 576 bans
Nature's Prophet
433 picks · 709 bans
Snapfire
402 picks · 294 bans
Death Prophet
401 picks · 796 bans
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 834 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Jedi Mind Tricks
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Jedi Mind Tricks
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:14
Jedi Mind Tricks 56%021 44%
The model gave 56% on Jedi Mind Tricks — the game was taken by Jedi Mind Tricks in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Hoodwinklukiluki
AbaddonArk
DisruptorSonic
SnapfireSteelborco
Death ProphetShoe
Game 2prediction missed9:33
Jedi Mind Tricks 56%021 44%
The model gave 56% on Jedi Mind Tricks — the game was taken by 021 in 32:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinySonic
TerrorbladeArk
Primal Beastlukiluki
HoodwinkSteelborco
DisruptorShoe
Game 3prediction missed7:16
Jedi Mind Tricks 53%021 47%
The model gave 53% on Jedi Mind Tricks — the game was taken by 021 in 14:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DisruptorSonic
Nature's ProphetArk
Hoodwinklukiluki
ClockwerkSteelborco
GyrocopterShoe
Model check result
Model favoriteJedi Mind Tricks · 58%
Series result021 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3