Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
joking aroundloss 0:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Ukrainewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
joking around
No games played over 6 months.
Team Ukraine
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
738 picks · 464 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 571 bans
Tusk
525 picks · 452 bans
Tiny
524 picks · 379 bans
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 578 bans
Snapfire
380 picks · 252 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 604 bans
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 733 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% joking around
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% joking around
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:34
joking around 51%Team Ukraine 49%
The model gave 51% on joking around — the game was taken by Team Ukraine in 20:48.
Model check result
Model favoritejoking around · 51%
Series resultTeam Ukraine 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1