RES Regional Series: EU #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
JustBetterloss 1:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Monteloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
JustBetter
Crystal Maiden
SsaSpartan · 3 games
Doomoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
SsaSpartan · 2 games
Dark Willow
Astral · 2 games
Hoodwink
Astral · 2 games
Lunaoften banned
Focus · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
SkyLark · 2 games
Monte
Vengeful Spirit
EcNart · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
Moonlight · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 5 games
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 5 games
Hoodwink
QBFY · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 5 games
Slardaroften banned
Infernal · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
384 picks · 352 bans
Vengeful Spirit
340 picks · 336 bans
Centaur Warrunner
333 picks · 530 bans
Mars
321 picks · 488 bans
Techies
315 picks · 244 bans
Batrider
300 picks · 574 bans
Hoodwink
298 picks · 177 bans
Tiny
286 picks · 258 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 35%
Hero pool strength54% Monte
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% JustBetter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:22
JustBetter 51%Monte 49%
The model gave 51% on JustBetter — the game was taken by JustBetter in 48:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightPanda
LunaCrystallize
GyrocopterFocus
Storm SpiritMoonlight
KunkkaSkyLark
MarsInfernal
HoodwinkAstral
EnigmaEcNart
Vengeful SpiritSsaSpartan
RubickQBFY
Game 2prediction missed18:27
JustBetter 53%Monte 47%
The model gave 53% on JustBetter — the game was taken by Monte in 37:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinPanda
LifestealerCrystallize
WindrangerFocus
RazorMoonlight
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
KunkkaInfernal
GrimstrokeAstral
EnigmaEcNart
Shadow DemonSsaSpartan
RubickQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteJustBetter · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2