DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
JustBetterwin 1:0series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Rest Farmersloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
JustBetter
Crystal Maiden
SsaSpartan · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 3 games
Doomoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
Hoodwink
Astral · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
Lunaoften banned
Focus · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
382 picks · 353 bans
Centaur Warrunner
357 picks · 564 bans
Vengeful Spirit
343 picks · 338 bans
Mars
342 picks · 517 bans
Techies
333 picks · 261 bans
Batrider
324 picks · 633 bans
Hoodwink
313 picks · 187 bans
Tiny
300 picks · 295 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 73%
Hero pool strength55% Rest Farmers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:7
JustBetter 27%Rest Farmers 73%
The model gave 73% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by JustBetter in 34:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 73%
Series resultJustBetter 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1