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CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
JustBetterloss 1:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SIBE Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

JustBetter

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 12 games
33%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Astral · 11 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Astral · 11 games
36%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Astral · 8 games
25%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 7 games
14%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Astral · 7 games
43%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 7 games
14%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
SkyLark · 7 games
14%

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 33 games
42%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 24 games
42%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 16 games
31%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
SOhY · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
sunset · 14 games
43%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
sunset · 14 games
36%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
408 picks · 635 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
345 picks · 365 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
336 picks · 431 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
334 picks · 125 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
324 picks · 168 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 353 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
314 picks · 423 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
312 picks · 540 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 51%
Hero pool strength55% SIBE Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:42
JustBetter 39%SIBE Team 61%
The model gave 61% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 1:01:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritThuG
56% · 187 games49% · 345 games
Tinyряф^^
Tiny
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritFocus
40% · 165 games44% · 177 games
Terrorbladerincyq
Terrorblade
Slardar
SlardarSkyLark
52% · 81 game58% · 117 games
Elder TitanSOhY
Elder Titan
Enchantress
EnchantressSsaSpartan
52% · 168 games50% · 254 games
Shadow Demonsunset
Shadow Demon
Rubick
RubickdEsire
50% · 292 games
Game 2prediction missed23:25
JustBetter 39%SIBE Team 61%
The model gave 61% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by JustBetter in 49:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterFocus
51% · 150 games50% · 225 games
Ember Spiritряф^^
Ember Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightThuG
52% · 136 games46% · 105 games
Monkey Kingrincyq
Monkey King
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSkyLark
51% · 159 games56% · 34 games
JakiroSOhY
Jakiro
Tiny
TinydEsire
54% · 204 games49% · 418 games
Rubicksunset
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixSsaSpartan
44% · 133 games
Game 3prediction correct20:38
JustBetter 36%SIBE Team 64%
The model gave 64% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 41:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordFocus
52% · 78 games53% · 200 games
Puckряф^^
Puck
Windranger
WindrangerThuG
54% · 96 games49% · 112 games
Ursarincyq
Ursa
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
45% · 122 games50% · 304 games
Batridersunset
Batrider
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
53% · 212 games48% · 32 games
JakiroSOhY
Jakiro
Phoenix
PhoenixSsaSpartan
44% · 140 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 70%
Series resultSIBE Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3