Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs predictionKCKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKIwin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CHILLAXloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Bane
smN · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
Treant Protector
smN · 4 games
Centaur Warrunner
Corrupted · 3 games
Dark Willow
Hellscream · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Munkushi~ · 3 games
Rikioften banned
Hellscream · 3 games
Techies
Hellscream · 3 games
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
447 picks · 265 bans
Mars
403 picks · 555 bans
Death Prophet
320 picks · 627 bans
Tiny
317 picks · 369 bans
Weaver
304 picks · 387 bans
Ember Spirit
284 picks · 407 bans
Queen of Pain
274 picks · 447 bans
Templar Assassin
266 picks · 552 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 65%
Hero pool strength59% KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% CHILLAX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:26
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 39%CHILLAX 61%
The model gave 61% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI in 52:48.
Game 2prediction correct41:42
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 39%CHILLAX 61%
The model gave 61% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by CHILLAX in 53:09.
Game 3prediction missed36:16
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 39%CHILLAX 61%
The model gave 61% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI in 30:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteCHILLAX · 61%
Series resultKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3