Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionKLKa Leloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
S.W.A.T.win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ka Le
No games played over 6 months.
S.W.A.T.
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
776 picks · 586 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 439 bans
Tiny
441 picks · 377 bans
Nature's Prophet
414 picks · 689 bans
Beastmaster
411 picks · 960 bans
Undying
401 picks · 587 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 207 bans
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 897 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Ka Le
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Ka Le
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:8
Ka Le 52%S.W.A.T. 48%
The model gave 52% on Ka Le — the game was taken by Ka Le in 31:55.
Game 2prediction missed33:10
Ka Le 52%S.W.A.T. 48%
The model gave 52% on Ka Le — the game was taken by S.W.A.T. in 32:55.
Game 3prediction missed10:29
Ka Le 52%S.W.A.T. 48%
The model gave 52% on Ka Le — the game was taken by S.W.A.T. in 27:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteKa Le · 52%
Series resultS.W.A.T. 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3