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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Kaiserloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
x5 Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kaiser

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Valquiria · 4 games
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Argius · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Argius · 3 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Valquiria · 2 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Cara · 2 games
0%
Muerta
Muerta
d1smar · 2 games
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Argius · 2 games
0%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Benjimon · 2 games
0%

x5 Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Luis · 1 game
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Luis · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Luis · 1 game
0%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Hermit · 1 game
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Rises · 1 game
0%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Rises · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
384 picks · 353 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 339 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
343 picks · 533 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
326 picks · 497 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
317 picks · 250 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
306 picks · 588 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
300 picks · 178 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
290 picks · 268 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% x5 Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% x5 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:33
Kaiser 48%x5 Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by Kaiser in 50:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterArgius
69% · 31 game42% · 127 games
LunaRises
Luna
Pangolier
PangolierBenjimon
37% · 99 games53% · 36 games
VisageHermit
Visage
Mars
MarsValquiria
47% · 54 games56% · 84 games
ChenLuis
Chen
Terrorblade
Terrorbladed1smar
53% · 63 games
Game 2prediction correct17:46
Kaiser 46%x5 Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 39:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenArgius
53% · 57 games53% · 150 games
SlarkRises
Slark
Windranger
WindrangerBenjimon
48% · 78 games56% · 111 games
Centaur WarrunnerHermit
Centaur Warrunner
Tidehunter
TidehunterValquiria
34% · 70 games56% · 145 games
Crystal MaidenLuis
Crystal Maiden
Rubick
Rubickd1smar
43% · 201 game
Game 3prediction correct7:37
Kaiser 46%x5 Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 32:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverArgius
54% · 22 games55% · 81 game
LifestealerRises
Lifestealer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerValquiria
42% · 94 games50% · 37 games
SlardarHermit
Slardar
Windranger
WindrangerBenjimon
40% · 56 games63% · 95 games
MiranaLuis
Mirana
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterd1smar
43% · 41 game
Model check result
Model favoritex5 Gaming · 54%
Series resultx5 Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3