EPL Masters III · BO3
result vs prediction
The WarriorsQloss 1:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dawn Bullswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The WarriorsQ
Baneoften banned
JANTER · 1 game
Dark Willow
Krinzhik · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Kami · 1 game
Dragon Knight
Katsura · 1 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
Katsura · 1 game
Ringmaster
Krinzhik · 1 game
Tidehunter
Kami · 1 game
Witch Doctor
JANTER · 1 game
Dawn Bulls
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 3 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 3 games
Gyrocopter
yamich · 3 games
Hoodwink
Se · 3 games
Mirana
Se · 3 games
Centaur Warrunner
Xibbe · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Sancity · 2 games
Spectreoften banned
Shad · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
509 picks · 322 bans
Dark Willow
433 picks · 229 bans
Mirana
394 picks · 176 bans
Winter Wyvern
344 picks · 312 bans
Ember Spirit
324 picks · 495 bans
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 285 bans
Windranger
282 picks · 130 bans
Earth Spirit
280 picks · 502 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 73%
Hero pool strength62% Dawn Bulls
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Dawn Bulls
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:10
The WarriorsQ 28%Dawn Bulls 72%
The model gave 72% on Dawn Bulls — the game was taken by The WarriorsQ in 26:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetKatsura
ViperShad
Terrorbladeicq
Earth SpiritSancity
DoomKami
Centaur WarrunnerXibbe
TechiesKrinzhik
Keeper of the Lightyamich
DisruptorJANTER
HoodwinkSe
Game 2prediction correct17:43
The WarriorsQ 30%Dawn Bulls 70%
The model gave 70% on Dawn Bulls — the game was taken by Dawn Bulls in 37:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingicq
Naga SirenShad
LycanKami
DawnbreakerXibbe
LargoKatsura
Earth SpiritSancity
Dark WillowKrinzhik
Gyrocopteryamich
Winter WyvernJANTER
MiranaSe
Game 3prediction correct12:38
The WarriorsQ 30%Dawn Bulls 70%
The model gave 70% on Dawn Bulls — the game was taken by Dawn Bulls in 30:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand KingKatsura
WindrangerShad
Slarkicq
DawnbreakerXibbe
DoomKami
Outworld DestroyerSancity
Dark WillowKrinzhik
Gyrocopteryamich
DisruptorJANTER
MiranaSe
Model check result
Model favoriteDawn Bulls · 82%
Series resultDawn Bulls 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3