Elite League Season 2 - Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 1:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kalmychata
Bane
smN · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hina · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
rincyq · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
hina · 1 game
Lunaoften banned
rincyq · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
rincyq · 1 game
Treant Protector
smN · 1 game
Dragon Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
434 picks · 644 bans
Batrider
423 picks · 730 bans
Centaur Warrunner
406 picks · 584 bans
Gyrocopter
405 picks · 364 bans
Rubick
390 picks · 162 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 799 bans
Shadow Demon
344 picks · 961 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Kalmychata 47%Dragon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 53%
Series resultKalmychata 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1