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CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 1:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:0
eSpoiledloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 13 games
62%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 13 games
54%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 12 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 11 games
73%
Axe
Axeoften banned
meLes · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
xn丶e · 8 games
88%

eSpoiled

Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 15 games
47%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 12 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 12 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 11 games
55%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 10 games
60%
Sven
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 10 games
30%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 10 games
30%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
575 picks · 591 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
369 picks · 216 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
368 picks · 424 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
356 picks · 363 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 507 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
326 picks · 694 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
322 picks · 855 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
307 picks · 626 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Kalmychata
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total61% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Kalmychata 61%eSpoiled 39%
The model gave 61% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 61%
Series resultKalmychata 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1