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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

Level UP

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 20 games
35%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 16 games
63%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 14 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 14 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 14 games
21%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 13 games
46%
Medusa
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 12 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 12 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
738 picks · 349 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
603 picks · 638 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
520 picks · 274 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
437 picks · 1178 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
425 picks · 695 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
421 picks · 267 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
415 picks · 449 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
366 picks · 235 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 33%
Hero pool strength61% Kalmychata
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total64% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:30
Kalmychata 64%Level UP 36%
The model gave 64% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Level UP in 35:36.
Game 2prediction missed33:42
Kalmychata 64%Level UP 36%
The model gave 64% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Level UP in 38:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 64%
Series resultKalmychata 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2