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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 17 games
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 15 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Ethereal · 14 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 13 games
62%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 13 games
62%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 12 games
67%

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 23 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 17 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 14 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Covisnine · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
xsvampire · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
294 picks · 679 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
260 picks · 110 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
258 picks · 257 bans
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 631 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
251 picks · 531 bans
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
246 picks · 209 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
244 picks · 555 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:32
Kalmychata 52%Nemiga Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 32:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritWoE
45% · 133 games57% · 153 games
Templar Assassinbashka
Templar Assassin
Earthshaker
EarthshakerEthereal
57% · 128 games48% · 313 games
Puckyoung G
Puck
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAnkou
55% · 124 games51% · 70 games
SlardarCovisnine
Slardar
Snapfire
Snapfireraregods
54% · 77 games36% · 81 game
Windrangerxsvampire
Windranger
Warlock
WarlockHtrd
46% · 155 games
Game 2prediction missed32:7
Kalmychata 48%Nemiga Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 35:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautWoE
53% · 7 games51% · 97 games
Invokeryoung G
Invoker
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEthereal
41% · 103 games57% · 44 games
Troll Warlordbashka
Troll Warlord
Marci
MarciAnkou
42% · 99 games62% · 97 games
EarthshakerCovisnine
Earthshaker
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterraregods
54% · 54 games51% · 126 games
Pugnaxsvampire
Pugna
Warlock
WarlockHtrd
44% · 101 game
Game 3prediction missed15:36
Kalmychata 53%Nemiga Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 38:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidWoE
54% · 32 games37% · 68 games
Svenbashka
Sven
Invoker
InvokerEthereal
60% · 142 games52% · 79 games
Leshracyoung G
Leshrac
Sand King
Sand KingAnkou
61% · 127 games43% · 124 games
MarsCovisnine
Mars
Warlock
WarlockHtrd
51% · 194 games45% · 312 games
Tinyxsvampire
Tiny
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterraregods
52% · 88 games
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 52%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3