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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Perrito Panzonloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

Perrito Panzon

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
MoOz · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
MoOz · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
25%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Frank · 4 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
PiPi · 3 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Elmisho · 3 games
33%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
691 picks · 334 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
573 picks · 608 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
468 picks · 250 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
394 picks · 1129 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 668 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
392 picks · 248 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
364 picks · 365 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
337 picks · 386 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:9
Kalmychata 54%Perrito Panzon 46%
The model gave 54% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Perrito Panzon in 26:04.
Game 2prediction missed18:24
Kalmychata 54%Perrito Panzon 46%
The model gave 54% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Perrito Panzon in 27:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 54%
Series resultKalmychata 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2