Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 1:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Hryvnialoss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kalmychata
Rubick
xsvampire · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 9 games
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 8 games
Elder Titan
antoha · 6 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Retsu · 5 games
Brewmasteroften banned
AfterLife · 4 games
Dark Willowoften banned
xsvampire · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 4 games
Team Hryvnia
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
369 picks · 759 bans
Hoodwink
343 picks · 328 bans
Rubick
339 picks · 236 bans
Weaver
333 picks · 689 bans
Clockwerk
314 picks · 466 bans
Gyrocopter
303 picks · 374 bans
Pangolier
298 picks · 504 bans
Phoenix
285 picks · 604 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 37%
Hero pool strength52% Team Hryvnia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Kalmychata 56%Team Hryvnia 44%
The model gave 56% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Game 2prediction missed26:50
Kalmychata 56%Team Hryvnia 44%
The model gave 56% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Team Hryvnia in 37:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2