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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Lynxloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
45%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
fortniteMan · 9 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 8 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
7jesu · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
787 picks · 362 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
579 picks · 300 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
578 picks · 579 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 579 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
493 picks · 335 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 269 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
476 picks · 753 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
437 picks · 1109 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Kalmychata
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total55% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:15
Kalmychata 55%Team Lynx 45%
The model gave 55% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 26:20.
Game 2prediction missed22:31
Kalmychata 55%Team Lynx 45%
The model gave 55% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 38:33.
Game 3prediction missed25:26
Kalmychata 55%Team Lynx 45%
The model gave 55% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 41:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 55%
Series resultKalmychata 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3