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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 4 games
75%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ani-san · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
ani-san · 4 games
25%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
ani-san · 4 games
25%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
JANTER · 4 games
25%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Ankou · 3 games
33%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
67%

Team Lynx

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 39 games
54%
Techies
Techies
kreker · 26 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 25 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
QBFY · 24 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangolier
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
39%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
488 picks · 293 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
370 picks · 162 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
359 picks · 160 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 481 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
304 picks · 303 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
292 picks · 472 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
291 picks · 273 bans
59%
Undying
Undying
269 picks · 369 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Team Lynx
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total51% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:27
Kalmychata 48%Team Lynx 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 51:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeryowaai
44% · 19 games51% · 39 games
Alchemistv1olent-
Alchemist
Windranger
WindrangerEthereal
50% · 288 games48% · 124 games
Vipermellojul
Viper
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAnkou
51% · 121 game47% · 235 games
SlardarVladikTheHtiviy
Slardar
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFernans
48% · 179 games46% · 236 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Mirana
Miranaani-san
52% · 187 games60% · 160 games
Winter Wyvernkreker
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct44:43
Kalmychata 49%Team Lynx 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 54:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetyowaai
56% · 158 games49% · 216 games
Kezv1olent-
Kez
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightEthereal
46% · 164 games48% · 286 games
Slardarmellojul
Slardar
Brewmaster
BrewmasterAnkou
47% · 80 games52% · 169 games
DoomVladikTheHtiviy
Doom
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
48% · 223 games55% · 130 games
Pugnakreker
Pugna
Tusk
Tuskani-san
49% · 377 games51% · 201 game
BaneQBFY
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 51%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2