Kalmychata vs Team Tea — prediction FP—D2ОК 2 · Dota 2

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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Kalmychataloss 0:2

series probability

37%63%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Team Teawin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Ringmaster

raregods · 18 games

50%

Dawnbreakersignature

Ankou · 16 games

63%

Terrorbladesignature

rincyq · 15 games

67%

Leshrac

Ethereal · 14 games

57%

Void Spiritsignature

WoE · 14 games

64%

Queen of Painsignature

Ethereal · 13 games

62%

Svensignature

rincyq · 13 games

62%

Dazzlesignature

raregods · 12 games

67%

Team Tea

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Shadow Shaman

303 picks · 193 bans

49%

Puck

295 picks · 661 bans

50%

Dark Willow

260 picks · 113 bans

47%

Tusk

256 picks · 253 bans

46%

Dawnbreaker

251 picks · 614 bans

48%

Nature's Prophet

249 picks · 516 bans

58%

Batrider

244 picks · 677 bans

54%

Marci

244 picks · 523 bans

55%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%

Hero pool strength55% Kalmychata

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total63% Team Tea

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct28:35

Kalmychata 45%Team Tea 55%

The model gave 55% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 46:20.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo