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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
JANTER · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 2 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Ankou · 2 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
ani-san · 2 games
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 1 game
0%
Largo
Largooften banned
Ankou · 1 game
100%

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Xakoda · 28 games
61%
Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 27 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
not me · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Rain · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 16 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
not me · 15 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 14 games
50%
Kez
Kezsignature
Shigetsu · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
469 picks · 289 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
323 picks · 130 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
319 picks · 140 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
308 picks · 452 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
287 picks · 423 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
286 picks · 291 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
271 picks · 213 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
265 picks · 365 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total76% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:21
Kalmychata 36%Yellow Submarine 64%
The model gave 64% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 32:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidyowaai
61% · 66 games52% · 164 games
Nature's ProphetShigetsu
Nature's Prophet
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritxn丶e
44% · 161 game44% · 263 games
Beastmastermangekyou
Beastmaster
Doom
DoomAnkou
55% · 204 games48% · 319 games
Storm SpiritRain
Storm Spirit
Mirana
MiranaJANTER
53% · 158 games46% · 282 games
Dark Willowprblms
Dark Willow
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkani-san
52% · 700 games47% · 261 game
BaneXakoda
Bane
Game 2prediction correct6:25
Kalmychata 35%Yellow Submarine 65%
The model gave 65% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 22:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeyowaai
46% · 212 games43% · 98 games
LifestealerShigetsu
Lifestealer
Tidehunter
TidehunterAnkou
54% · 157 games44% · 96 games
Lycanmangekyou
Lycan
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritxn丶e
55% · 125 games46% · 47 games
EarthshakerRain
Earthshaker
Mirana
Miranaani-san
59% · 177 games51% · 424 games
Hoodwinkprblms
Hoodwink
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernJANTER
56% · 155 games48% · 161 game
BaneXakoda
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 76%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2