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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 18 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
WoE · 16 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Ethereal · 14 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 14 games
64%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 14 games
64%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 12 games
83%

VP.Prodigy

Snapfire
Snapfire
armageddon · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 3 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 3 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
egx · 3 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
armageddon · 2 games
0%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
takizawa · 2 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Serenada · 2 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
armageddon · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
297 picks · 190 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
294 picks · 686 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
258 picks · 109 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
258 picks · 255 bans
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 640 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 534 bans
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
247 picks · 212 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
244 picks · 569 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 38%
Hero pool strength61% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:29
Kalmychata 72%VP.Prodigy 28%
The model gave 72% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 33:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordWoE
55% · 37 games58% · 87 games
Ursaegx
Ursa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEthereal
48% · 157 games46% · 193 games
Storm SpiritSerenada
Storm Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAnkou
45% · 164 games52% · 112 games
Marstakizawa
Mars
Chen
ChenHtrd
61% · 85 games51% · 56 games
SilencerRein
Silencer
Snapfire
Snapfireraregods
45% · 126 games43% · 121 game
Hoodwinkarmageddon
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct46:28
Kalmychata 71%VP.Prodigy 29%
The model gave 71% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 52:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreWoE
59% · 28 games51% · 117 games
Lifestealeregx
Lifestealer
Leshrac
LeshracEthereal
58% · 102 games50% · 242 games
Storm SpiritSerenada
Storm Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingAnkou
49% · 177 games42% · 133 games
Marstakizawa
Mars
Tiny
Tinyraregods
51% · 406 games48% · 90 games
Hoodwinkarmageddon
Hoodwink
Dazzle
DazzleHtrd
51% · 58 games45% · 189 games
WarlockRein
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct35:13
Kalmychata 71%VP.Prodigy 29%
The model gave 71% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 41:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenWoE
41% · 129 games52% · 301 game
Bristlebacktakizawa
Bristleback
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEthereal
56% · 169 games48% · 344 games
PuckSerenada
Puck
Phoenix
PhoenixAnkou
47% · 314 games50% · 291 game
Gyrocopteregx
Gyrocopter
Naga Siren
Naga SirenHtrd
60% · 130 games47% · 115 games
Hoodwinkarmageddon
Hoodwink
Tiny
Tinyraregods
50% · 420 games49% · 111 games
Elder TitanRein
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 85%
Series resultKalmychata 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3