?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

Winter Bear

Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Panda · 3 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Panda · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 2 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Stoic · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Stoic · 1 game
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
OmaR · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Panda · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
784 picks · 360 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
578 picks · 583 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
577 picks · 299 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
489 picks · 570 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
488 picks · 326 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
478 picks · 266 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
468 picks · 751 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
437 picks · 1106 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 41%
Hero pool strength59% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:21
Kalmychata 64%Winter Bear 36%
The model gave 64% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 24:48.
Game 2prediction missed19:23
Kalmychata 64%Winter Bear 36%
The model gave 64% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 35:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 64%
Series resultKalmychata 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2