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CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 16 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 16 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 14 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 13 games
62%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 13 games
62%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 13 games
69%
Axe
Axeoften banned
meLes · 10 games
50%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 10 games
70%

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 20 games
30%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
bottega · 18 games
39%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 17 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
mrls · 17 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mirele · 16 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 16 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
489 picks · 516 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
385 picks · 222 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
353 picks · 398 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
331 picks · 862 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
322 picks · 921 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
311 picks · 470 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
306 picks · 279 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
299 picks · 604 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Kalmychata
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total60% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:32
Kalmychata 47%Yellow Submarine 53%
The model gave 53% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 33:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetWoE
46% · 200 games53% · 141 game
Templar Assassinbottega
Templar Assassin
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendEthereal
48% · 171 game53% · 197 games
Monkey KingMirele
Monkey King
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAnkou
55% · 136 games56% · 159 games
MagnusInfernal
Magnus
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
41% · 156 games44% · 88 games
Snapfiremrls
Snapfire
55% · 78 games
BaneXakoda
Bane
Game 2prediction correct10:24
Kalmychata 46%Yellow Submarine 54%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 28:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWoE
44% · 372 games54% · 184 games
Muertabottega
Muerta
Lycan
LycanAnkou
52% · 99 games53% · 217 games
BeastmasterInfernal
Beastmaster
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEthereal
49% · 172 games55% · 40 games
Void SpiritMirele
Void Spirit
Dazzle
Dazzleraregods
43% · 63 games50% · 165 games
Tuskmrls
Tusk
55% · 100 games
Ancient ApparitionXakoda
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 60%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2