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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 20 games
35%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 17 games
76%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mirele · 16 games
63%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 16 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 16 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
290 picks · 706 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 178 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
258 picks · 239 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
255 picks · 659 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
249 picks · 250 bans
45%
Pugna
Pugna
246 picks · 257 bans
54%
Marci
Marci
245 picks · 629 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
244 picks · 103 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Kalmychata
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total58% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:19
Kalmychata 42%Yellow Submarine 58%
The model gave 58% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 32:40.
Game 2prediction correct27:5
Kalmychata 42%Yellow Submarine 58%
The model gave 58% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 27:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 58%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2