?
arrow_backBack to match
BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 21 game
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 20 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 20 games
35%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 17 games
76%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 16 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 16 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mirele · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
339 picks · 316 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
328 picks · 819 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
290 picks · 146 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
284 picks · 317 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 767 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
271 picks · 246 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
269 picks · 172 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
266 picks · 122 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 51%
Hero pool strength54% Kalmychata
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total52% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:6
Kalmychata 52%Yellow Submarine 48%
The model gave 52% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 31:50.
Game 2prediction missed33:35
Kalmychata 52%Yellow Submarine 48%
The model gave 52% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 47:50.
Game 3prediction missed
Kalmychata 52%Yellow Submarine 48%
The model gave 52% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 52%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3