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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:0
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 14 games
71%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 48 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 44 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 35 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 29 games
66%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 27 games
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 26 games
65%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 25 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 25 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
767 picks · 354 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
572 picks · 299 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
550 picks · 550 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
527 picks · 387 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
510 picks · 618 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
484 picks · 288 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
467 picks · 739 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 507 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Kalmychata
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total71% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:21
Kalmychata 29%Zero Tenacity 71%
The model gave 71% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 28:23.
Game 2prediction correct25:23
Kalmychata 29%Zero Tenacity 71%
The model gave 71% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 35:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 71%
Series resultKalmychata 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2