Road To Asian Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Казахстанwin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Иранloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Казахстан
No games played over 6 months.
Иран
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
650 picks · 696 bans
Rubick
544 picks · 370 bans
Doom
512 picks · 1050 bans
Ember Spirit
427 picks · 914 bans
Beastmaster
413 picks · 1084 bans
Batrider
410 picks · 1016 bans
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
Enchantress
387 picks · 661 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Казахстан
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Казахстан
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Казахстан 73%Иран 27%
The model gave 73% on Казахстан — the game was taken by Казахстан.
Game 2prediction correct
Казахстан 73%Иран 27%
The model gave 73% on Казахстан — the game was taken by Казахстан.
Model check result
Model favoriteКазахстан · 73%
Series resultКазахстан 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2