Road To Asian Games · BO1
result vs prediction
Казахстанwin 1:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Кыргызстанloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Казахстан
No games played over 6 months.
Кыргызстан
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
646 picks · 694 bans
Rubick
534 picks · 360 bans
Doom
507 picks · 1042 bans
Ember Spirit
423 picks · 904 bans
Beastmaster
408 picks · 1071 bans
Batrider
407 picks · 1004 bans
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
Enchantress
380 picks · 655 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Казахстан
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Казахстан
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Казахстан 76%Кыргызстан 24%
The model gave 76% on Казахстан — the game was taken by Казахстан.
Model check result
Model favoriteКазахстан · 76%
Series resultКазахстан 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1