Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO1
result vs prediction
KBU.USwin 1:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
5ManMidasloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
432 picks · 271 bans
Mars
414 picks · 547 bans
Tiny
365 picks · 422 bans
Death Prophet
339 picks · 692 bans
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 445 bans
Sand King
299 picks · 402 bans
Weaver
266 picks · 318 bans
Pangolier
264 picks · 396 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 36%
Hero pool strength50% KBU.US
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:49
KBU.US 58%5ManMidas 42%
The model gave 58% on KBU.US — the game was taken by 5ManMidas in 51:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 58%
Series resultKBU.US 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1