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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
KBU.USloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KBU.US

No games played over 6 months.

5RATFORCESTAFF

Bane
Banesignature
Overlom · 10 games
70%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 8 games
100%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 5 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfire
bgod · 5 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
red2 · 5 games
80%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Overlom · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
red2 · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
476 picks · 280 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
397 picks · 546 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 514 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
360 picks · 480 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
314 picks · 496 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
291 picks · 522 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
273 picks · 354 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
270 picks · 191 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 56%
Hero pool strength59% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:33
KBU.US 41%5RATFORCESTAFF 59%
The model gave 59% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 37:28.
Game 2prediction correct39:17
KBU.US 41%5RATFORCESTAFF 59%
The model gave 59% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 35:18.
Game 3prediction correct26:19
KBU.US 41%5RATFORCESTAFF 59%
The model gave 59% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 40:29.
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 59%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3