ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
KBU.USwin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
5RATFORCESTAFF
Abaddonsignature
albinozebra · 8 games
Death Prophetsignature
Lil_Nick · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
red2 · 7 games
Tiny
Giant · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Lil_Nick · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Giant · 6 games
Hoodwink
Giant · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
dnm · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
620 picks · 467 bans
Puck
432 picks · 940 bans
Snapfire
361 picks · 187 bans
Mars
358 picks · 586 bans
Dawnbreaker
353 picks · 411 bans
Dragon Knight
337 picks · 457 bans
Bane
316 picks · 196 bans
Marci
306 picks · 608 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total50% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:35
KBU.US 50%5RATFORCESTAFF 50%
The model gave 50% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 49:40.
Game 2prediction correct44:24
KBU.US 50%5RATFORCESTAFF 50%
The model gave 50% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 44:28.
Game 3prediction correct43:16
KBU.US 50%5RATFORCESTAFF 50%
The model gave 50% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 33:52.
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 50%
Series resultKBU.US 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3