Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
KBU.USwin 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DD Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
DD Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
260 picks · 385 bans
Mars
259 picks · 368 bans
Monkey King
255 picks · 602 bans
Bane
224 picks · 160 bans
Lina
216 picks · 464 bans
Void Spirit
216 picks · 256 bans
Lion
214 picks · 102 bans
Pangolier
209 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% KBU.US
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:30
KBU.US 61%DD Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 39:00.
Game 2prediction missed51:36
KBU.US 61%DD Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on KBU.US — the game was taken by DD Gaming in 37:28.
Game 3prediction correct26:21
KBU.US 61%DD Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 35:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 61%
Series resultKBU.US 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3