Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
KBU.USloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Happy Sealswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Happy Seals
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
447 picks · 266 bans
Mars
404 picks · 553 bans
Death Prophet
323 picks · 637 bans
Tiny
323 picks · 374 bans
Weaver
300 picks · 375 bans
Ember Spirit
283 picks · 417 bans
Sand King
271 picks · 334 bans
Queen of Pain
269 picks · 438 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% KBU.US
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Happy Seals
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:42
KBU.US 39%Happy Seals 61%
The model gave 61% on Happy Seals — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 38:14.
Game 2prediction correct18:29
KBU.US 39%Happy Seals 61%
The model gave 61% on Happy Seals — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 27:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteHappy Seals · 61%
Series resultHappy Seals 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2