Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
KBU.USloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HFwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 15 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 10 games
Bane
Malady · 8 games
Iosignature
Kaori · 8 games
Pucksignature
hAze · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
505 picks · 436 bans
Mars
478 picks · 702 bans
Bane
452 picks · 296 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 530 bans
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 613 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 604 bans
Sand King
370 picks · 531 bans
Keeper of the Light
346 picks · 761 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength58% HF
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:18
KBU.US 28%HF 72%
The model gave 72% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 29:50.
Game 2prediction correct54:29
KBU.US 28%HF 72%
The model gave 72% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 47:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 72%
Series resultHF 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2