Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
KBU.USloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Hydra
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 29 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 24 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 23 games
Bane
Muka · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 20 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 19 games
Weaver
Muka · 18 games
Hoodwink
Muka · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
461 picks · 638 bans
Tiny
449 picks · 473 bans
Bane
446 picks · 270 bans
Sand King
417 picks · 570 bans
Dragon Knight
374 picks · 439 bans
Storm Spirit
373 picks · 621 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 553 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 580 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:48
KBU.US 42%Hydra 58%
The model gave 58% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 40:00.
Game 2prediction correct47:21
KBU.US 42%Hydra 58%
The model gave 58% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 38:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 58%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2