The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KBU.USloss 0:2series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
nouns
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 11 games
Tinysignature
ZfreeK · 10 games
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 9 games
Marcioften banned
Husky · 9 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Husky · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 8 games
Beastmastersignature
Moo · 6 games
Bloodseekersignature
Costabile · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
725 picks · 572 bans
Puck
504 picks · 1021 bans
Dawnbreaker
489 picks · 649 bans
Marci
471 picks · 816 bans
Winter Wyvern
375 picks · 420 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 163 bans
Zeus
327 picks · 392 bans
Razor
303 picks · 585 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total85% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:9
KBU.US 15%nouns 85%
The model gave 85% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 37:53.
Game 2prediction correct44:13
KBU.US 15%nouns 85%
The model gave 85% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 32:41.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 85%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2