Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
KBU.USwin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team DogChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Team DogChamp
Bane
Bloody Nine · 16 games
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 16 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 11 games
Tiny
Ryoya · 10 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 10 games
Medusaoften banned
StoneBank · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 8 games
Shadow Shaman
yarintheslayer · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
552 picks · 462 bans
Mars
439 picks · 684 bans
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 539 bans
Bane
397 picks · 276 bans
Puck
358 picks · 825 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 575 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 639 bans
Chaos Knight
333 picks · 660 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% KBU.US
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:29
KBU.US 46%Team DogChamp 54%
The model gave 54% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 45:43.
Game 2prediction correct40:48
KBU.US 46%Team DogChamp 54%
The model gave 54% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 42:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 54%
Series resultKBU.US 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2