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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KEFTEMEwin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EZ KATKAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KEFTEME

No games played over 6 months.

EZ KATKA

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Rvze · 6 games
83%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lukas · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rvze · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lefitan · 5 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 3 games
33%
Marci
Marci
Lefitan · 3 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Lefitan · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
764 picks · 497 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
544 picks · 390 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 434 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
533 picks · 576 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 636 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
394 picks · 276 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
383 picks · 688 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
358 picks · 772 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% EZ KATKA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% EZ KATKA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:32
KEFTEME 46%EZ KATKA 54%
The model gave 54% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by KEFTEME in 36:06.
Game 2prediction correct31:50
KEFTEME 46%EZ KATKA 54%
The model gave 54% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 45:32.
Game 3prediction missed15:38
KEFTEME 46%EZ KATKA 54%
The model gave 54% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by KEFTEME in 36:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteEZ KATKA · 54%
Series resultKEFTEME 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3