KEFTEME vs HF — prediction DPC2S2ВЕЗО · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

KEFTEMEwin 2:0

series probability

65%35%

probability at match start · final 2:0

HFloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KEFTEME

Hoodwink

kickeed · 1 game

Silencer

kickeed · 1 game

Slarkoften banned

PLOV · 1 game

Spectreoften banned

PLOV · 1 game

HF

Treant Protectorsignature

SOhY · 10 games

60%

Tusk

toshiyb · 10 games

40%

Techies

weebian · 9 games

56%

Mirana

SOhY · 8 games

25%

Tiny

toshiyb · 8 games

25%

Beastmasteroften banned

Actor · 7 games

14%

Crystal Maiden

SOhY · 7 games

57%

Lycanoften banned

Actor · 7 games

43%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

785 picks · 538 bans

51%

Tiny

562 picks · 400 bans

52%

Tusk

532 picks · 437 bans

48%

Treant Protector

526 picks · 571 bans

56%

Nature's Prophet

437 picks · 711 bans

56%

Death Prophet

406 picks · 791 bans

50%

Snapfire

402 picks · 293 bans

45%

Ember Spirit

364 picks · 844 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)67% vs 33%

Hero pool strength52% HF

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total65% KEFTEME

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct34:40

KEFTEME 60%HF 40%

The model gave 60% on KEFTEME — the game was taken by KEFTEME in 1:07:19.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo