KEKWait vs cybercats — prediction WDCLS 2 12 · Dota 2

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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3

result vs prediction

KKEKWaitloss 0:2

series probability

32%68%

probability at match start · final 0:2

cybercatswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KEKWait

No games played over 6 months.

cybercats

Grimstroke

Hduo · 12 games

25%

Chaos Knightoften banned

Shigetsu · 9 games

22%

Bane

Hduo · 8 games

25%

Hoodwink

Fezor · 6 games

33%

Sand Kingsignature

USHUSHUSH · 6 games

83%

Weaveroften banned

Shigetsu · 6 games

50%

Doomoften banned

Fezor · 5 games

60%

Pugnaoften banned

Hduo · 5 games

40%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

490 picks · 451 bans

49%

Mars

485 picks · 676 bans

47%

Bane

459 picks · 282 bans

57%

Dragon Knight

432 picks · 506 bans

52%

Sand King

414 picks · 570 bans

54%

Storm Spirit

401 picks · 653 bans

56%

Pangolier

378 picks · 599 bans

53%

Grimstroke

353 picks · 307 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)33% vs 45%

Hero pool strength55% KEKWait

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total68% cybercats

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct32:23

KEKWait 41%cybercats 59%

The model gave 59% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 31:37.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo