?
arrow_backBack to match
Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
KEVloss 0:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KEV

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Undyne_ · 6 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 6 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ELeVeN · 6 games
50%
Weaver
Weaversignature
flyfly · 6 games
67%
Omniknight
Omniknight
ELeVeN · 5 games
100%
Techies
Techies
Undyne_ · 5 games
40%

nouns

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Lelis · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 18 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 18 games
83%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 16 games
88%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 16 games
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 15 games
53%
Techies
Techiessignature
Fly · 14 games
79%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
477 picks · 767 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
440 picks · 705 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
435 picks · 347 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 573 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
431 picks · 918 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
417 picks · 189 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
405 picks · 197 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:29
KEV 34%nouns 66%
The model gave 66% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 29:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackELeVeN
46% · 41 game44% · 91 game
TerrorbladeYuma
Terrorblade
Leshrac
LeshracButterflyEffect
59% · 180 games50% · 133 games
PangolierCopy
Pangolier
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerflyfly
56% · 188 games48% · 38 games
BrewmasterGunnar
Brewmaster
Oracle
OracleUndyne_
48% · 85 games40% · 142 games
RubickLelis
Rubick
51% · 90 games
DisruptorFly
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct12:21
KEV 34%nouns 66%
The model gave 66% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 25:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightButterflyEffect
45% · 184 games47% · 105 games
TerrorbladeYuma
Terrorblade
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordflyfly
53% · 47 games53% · 82 games
Monkey KingCopy
Monkey King
Omniknight
OmniknightELeVeN
62% · 19 games47% · 125 games
TimbersawGunnar
Timbersaw
Clockwerk
ClockwerkUndyne_
52% · 168 games47% · 89 games
UndyingFly
Undying
56% · 17 games
Shadow ShamanLelis
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 78%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2