?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
KEVwin 2:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TEAM TURTLEloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KEV

Weaver
Weaversignature
flyfly · 9 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Undyne_ · 7 games
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
29%
Omniknight
Omniknightsignature
ELeVeN · 7 games
71%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 7 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%

TEAM TURTLE

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 221 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 735 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 631 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 405 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
406 picks · 758 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
387 picks · 164 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 1041 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 746 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% KEV
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% TEAM TURTLE
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:23
KEV 39%TEAM TURTLE 61%
The model gave 61% on TEAM TURTLE — the game was taken by KEV in 30:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
53% · 120 games53% · 143 games
Queen of PainSomnus
Queen of Pain
Timbersaw
Timbersaw生死
52% · 141 game54% · 334 games
MarsYang
Mars
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritUlu
49% · 152 games47% · 51 game
Wraith KingChalice
Wraith King
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonUndyne_
56% · 181 game43% · 228 games
HoodwinkpLAnet
Hoodwink
Batrider
BatriderRedPanda
48% · 226 games44% · 64 games
Winter WyvernFantasy
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction missed25:24
KEV 40%TEAM TURTLE 60%
The model gave 60% on TEAM TURTLE — the game was taken by KEV in 44:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
49% · 158 games49% · 169 games
TimbersawSomnus
Timbersaw
Lifestealer
LifestealerUlu
54% · 176 games52% · 153 games
TerrorbladeChalice
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight生死
50% · 250 games46% · 324 games
Centaur WarrunnerYang
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowRedPanda
48% · 155 games50% · 219 games
Shadow DemonpLAnet
Shadow Demon
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeUndyne_
55% · 184 games46% · 58 games
VenomancerFantasy
Venomancer
Game 3prediction missed
KEV 31%TEAM TURTLE 69%
The model gave 69% on TEAM TURTLE — the game was taken by KEV.
Model check result
Model favoriteTEAM TURTLE · 69%
Series resultKEV 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3