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DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
KEVwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ToLightloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KEV

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
ELeVeN · 6 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
75%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Undyne_ · 4 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 4 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 3 games
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
67%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
flyfly · 3 games
67%

ToLight

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
0%
Tusk
Tusk
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 582 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 540 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
347 picks · 273 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
343 picks · 336 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
327 picks · 672 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
319 picks · 191 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
309 picks · 318 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% KEV
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% KEV
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:16
KEV 64%ToLight 36%
The model gave 64% on KEV — the game was taken by KEV in 27:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverflyfly
44% · 12 games61% · 27 games
Chen谢乐zzz张泽中
Chen
Razor
RazorButterflyEffect
30% · 6 games
Omniknight
OmniknightELeVeN
little data
Pudge
PudgeUndyne_
38% · 9 games
Game 2prediction correct37:16
KEV 62%ToLight 38%
The model gave 62% on KEV — the game was taken by KEV in 27:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunaflyfly
38% · 25 games59% · 148 games
Mirana谢乐zzz张泽中
Mirana
Sniper
SniperButterflyEffect
40% · 11 games
Primal Beast
Primal BeastELeVeN
34% · 43 games
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeUndyne_
52% · 69 games
Model check result
Model favoriteKEV · 78%
Series resultKEV 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2