Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Keyd Starsloss 0:1series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Alliance.LATAMwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Snapfiresignature
KJ · 20 games
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 13 games
Medusasignature
hFn · 10 games
Tinysignature
Kingrd · 10 games
Pucksignature
Sooths · 9 games
Visagesignature
Tavo · 9 games
Marcisignature
Kingrd · 8 games
Techiessignature
FCR · 8 games
Alliance.LATAM
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
402 picks · 401 bans
Tiny
375 picks · 368 bans
Rubick
363 picks · 251 bans
Mirana
292 picks · 300 bans
Treant Protector
239 picks · 288 bans
Snapfire
228 picks · 120 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 146 bans
Ember Spirit
197 picks · 550 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Alliance.LATAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:27
Keyd Stars 35%Alliance.LATAM 65%
The model gave 65% on Alliance.LATAM — the game was taken by Alliance.LATAM in 36:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance.LATAM · 65%
Series resultAlliance.LATAM 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1