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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starsloss 0:2
series probability
7%93%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Keyd Stars

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 10 games
20%
Tusk
Tusk
Kingrd · 10 games
50%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 6 games
33%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 5 games
80%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Costabile · 5 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Costabile · 5 games
60%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 5 games
40%

BETBOOM TEAM

Techies
Techiessignature
Save- · 38 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 31 game
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 31 game
74%
Doom
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 29 games
62%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Save- · 28 games
79%
Undying
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 27 games
74%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
65%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
Pure~ · 22 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
212 picks · 270 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
201 picks · 94 bans
40%
Pangolier
Pangolier
191 picks · 409 bans
55%
Sven
Sven
185 picks · 262 bans
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
166 picks · 169 bans
59%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
166 picks · 95 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
161 picks · 151 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
157 picks · 68 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 53%
Hero pool strength59% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:29
Keyd Stars 20%BETBOOM TEAM 80%
The model gave 80% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 34:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaCostabile
48% · 42 games49% · 171 game
TerrorbladeNightfall
Terrorblade
Bristleback
BristlebackFCR
45% · 34 games43% · 97 games
DawnbreakerPure~
Dawnbreaker
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4nalog
51% · 305 games45% · 221 game
Storm SpiritgpK~
Storm Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageKingrd
51% · 210 games48% · 148 games
Keeper of the LightSave-
Keeper of the Light
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKJ
58% · 263 games56% · 217 games
Treant ProtectorTORONTOTOKYO
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct11:24
Keyd Stars 20%BETBOOM TEAM 80%
The model gave 80% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenCostabile
53% · 86 games51% · 55 games
LunaNightfall
Luna
Pangolier
Pangolier4nalog
49% · 203 games47% · 151 game
DawnbreakerPure~
Dawnbreaker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightFCR
52% · 96 games47% · 110 games
InvokergpK~
Invoker
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKingrd
50% · 206 games50% · 128 games
Dark WillowSave-
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKJ
53% · 190 games50% · 337 games
Treant ProtectorTORONTOTOKYO
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 93%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2