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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starsloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Estar Backswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Keyd Stars

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 11 games
18%
Tusk
Tusk
Kingrd · 10 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Kingrd · 8 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 7 games
29%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
KJ · 7 games
57%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
FCR · 6 games
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Costabile · 6 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 6 games
83%

Estar Backs

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 3 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
StingeR · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Michael · 2 games
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 2 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 2 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 2 games
100%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Michael · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
237 picks · 109 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
235 picks · 280 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
227 picks · 268 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
200 picks · 431 bans
63%
Pangolier
Pangolier
199 picks · 420 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
199 picks · 265 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
178 picks · 279 bans
47%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
176 picks · 175 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:41
Keyd Stars 47%Estar Backs 53%
The model gave 53% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 56:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightFCR
56% · 105 games41% · 70 games
MuertaMnz
Muerta
Weaver
WeaverCostabile
50% · 48 games49% · 109 games
Skywrath MageMichael
Skywrath Mage
Huskar
Huskar4nalog
53% · 7 games54% · 187 games
Treant ProtectorStingeR
Treant Protector
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKingrd
57% · 169 games
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKJ
41% · 37 games
Game 2prediction missed34:15
Keyd Stars 47%Estar Backs 53%
The model gave 53% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 30:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidCostabile
53% · 90 games43% · 100 games
MuertaMnz
Muerta
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light4nalog
51% · 77 games51% · 206 games
TuskStingeR
Tusk
Kunkka
KunkkaFCR
47% · 62 games54% · 143 games
Spirit BreakerMichael
Spirit Breaker
Enchantress
EnchantressKJ
52% · 102 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowKingrd
52% · 118 games
Game 3prediction correct12:37
Keyd Stars 46%Estar Backs 54%
The model gave 54% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 40:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCostabile
48% · 10 games47% · 56 games
SpectreMnz
Spectre
Zeus
Zeus4nalog
55% · 12 games57% · 52 games
MuertaMichael
Muerta
Magnus
MagnusFCR
47% · 29 games57% · 35 games
ChenStingeR
Chen
Tusk
TuskKingrd
48% · 52 games
Enchantress
EnchantressKJ
42% · 40 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 58%
Series resultEstar Backs 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3