Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starswin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lavaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Snapfire
KJ · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
4dr · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
KJ · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kingrd · 8 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Kingrd · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Tavo · 7 games
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 7 games
Marsoften banned
4dr · 7 games
Lava
Undyingsignature
JimmyCoff666 · 10 games
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
Disruptorsignature
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 6 games
Morphlingsignature
payk · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
Silencer
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
690 picks · 476 bans
Techies
605 picks · 639 bans
Doom
568 picks · 1111 bans
Disruptor
525 picks · 495 bans
Beastmaster
520 picks · 1235 bans
Ember Spirit
481 picks · 1047 bans
Enchantress
462 picks · 679 bans
Pangolier
451 picks · 920 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Keyd Stars 40%Lava 60%
The model gave 60% on Lava — the game was taken by Keyd Stars.
Game 2prediction missed
Keyd Stars 40%Lava 60%
The model gave 60% on Lava — the game was taken by Keyd Stars.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 60%
Series resultKeyd Stars 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2