Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starswin 2:1series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
los moticucosloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Snapfire
KJ · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
4dr · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
KJ · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Tavo · 7 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Kingrd · 7 games
Marsoften banned
4dr · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kingrd · 6 games
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 6 games
los moticucos
Medusaoften banned
Accel · 3 games
Rubick
sl4d1n- · 3 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
sl4d1n- · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Accel · 2 games
Pugnaoften banned
Accel · 2 games
Tusk
Alone · 2 games
Void Spirit
Alone · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Alone · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
713 picks · 616 bans
Disruptor
596 picks · 523 bans
Doom
502 picks · 965 bans
Beastmaster
497 picks · 1242 bans
Ember Spirit
443 picks · 1107 bans
Pangolier
436 picks · 888 bans
Mirana
416 picks · 221 bans
Enchantress
413 picks · 595 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 64%
Hero pool strength59% los moticucos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% los moticucos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:32
Keyd Stars 41%los moticucos 59%
The model gave 59% on los moticucos — the game was taken by los moticucos in 32:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingCostabile
Templar AssassinParker
DoomFCR
Bounty HunterAlone
Void Spirit4nalog
TidehunterOscar
Skywrath MageKingrd
BatriderAccel
VenomancerKJ
Monkey Kingsl4d1n-
Game 2prediction missed38:12
Keyd Stars 42%los moticucos 58%
The model gave 58% on los moticucos — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingCostabile
Shadow FiendParker
TimbersawFCR
PuckAlone
Kunkka4nalog
TidehunterOscar
MiranaKingrd
OracleAccel
BatriderKJ
Techiessl4d1n-
Game 3prediction missed31:11
Keyd Stars 41%los moticucos 59%
The model gave 59% on los moticucos — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 47:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenCostabile
Phantom LancerParker
Windranger4nalog
PugnaAlone
TimbersawFCR
Death ProphetOscar
TechiesKingrd
Bounty Huntersl4d1n-
EnchantressKJ
SilencerAccel
Model check result
Model favoritelos moticucos · 67%
Series resultKeyd Stars 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3