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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starsloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MoneyMakerswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Keyd Stars

Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
FCR · 8 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Kingrd · 7 games
29%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kingrd · 6 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
FCR · 6 games
83%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 5 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 5 games
20%
Tusk
Tusk
Kingrd · 5 games
80%

MoneyMakers

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 19 games
42%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Bignum · 14 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 11 games
36%
Techies
Techies
Bignum · 10 games
30%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 9 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
298 picks · 150 bans
44%
Pangolier
Pangolier
210 picks · 410 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
205 picks · 273 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
191 picks · 385 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
184 picks · 109 bans
55%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
183 picks · 348 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
176 picks · 264 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
175 picks · 251 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Keyd Stars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:26
Keyd Stars 55%MoneyMakers 45%
The model gave 55% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 34:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackFCR
58% · 8 games54% · 278 games
PangolierEgor
Pangolier
Muerta
MuertaCostabile
49% · 37 games55% · 54 games
GyrocopterLukas
Gyrocopter
Primal Beast
Primal Beast4nalog
49% · 293 games45% · 406 games
RubickBignum
Rubick
Tusk
TuskKingrd
49% · 368 games49% · 51 game
Vengeful SpiritCeMaTheSlayeR
Vengeful Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeKJ
51% · 83 games
Game 2prediction missed12:32
Keyd Stars 57%MoneyMakers 43%
The model gave 57% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 44:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenCostabile
61% · 80 games41% · 68 games
BloodseekerLukas
Bloodseeker
Lone Druid
Lone DruidFCR
53% · 29 games46% · 89 games
Death ProphetEgor
Death Prophet
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit4nalog
55% · 57 games45% · 61 game
GrimstrokeCeMaTheSlayeR
Grimstroke
Phoenix
PhoenixKJ
45% · 125 games47% · 146 games
TuskBignum
Tusk
Dark Willow
Dark WillowKingrd
62% · 73 games
Game 3prediction missed15:37
Keyd Stars 59%MoneyMakers 41%
The model gave 59% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 39:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenCostabile
52% · 69 games47% · 82 games
Faceless VoidLukas
Faceless Void
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4nalog
50% · 233 games45% · 80 games
InvokerEgor
Invoker
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderFCR
56% · 50 games41% · 89 games
PhoenixCeMaTheSlayeR
Phoenix
Dark Willow
Dark WillowKingrd
59% · 64 games48% · 202 games
TuskBignum
Tusk
Warlock
WarlockKJ
57% · 37 games
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 62%
Series resultMoneyMakers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3