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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starsloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Keyd Stars

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 11 games
18%
Tusk
Tusk
Kingrd · 11 games
45%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 8 games
75%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Kingrd · 8 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
FCR · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
KJ · 7 games
43%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Costabile · 7 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
4nalog · 7 games
57%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 18 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
Corrupted · 10 games
60%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
v1olent- · 10 games
90%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Corrupted · 9 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hellscream · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantress
so bad · 7 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
RodjER · 7 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Malr1ne · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
258 picks · 326 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
250 picks · 113 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
221 picks · 226 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
214 picks · 482 bans
61%
Phoenix
Phoenix
210 picks · 291 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
200 picks · 395 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
188 picks · 446 bans
58%
Muerta
Muerta
186 picks · 268 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:35
Keyd Stars 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 55:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverCostabile
41% · 47 games54% · 12 games
Juggernautv1olent-
Juggernaut
Kunkka
Kunkka4nalog
54% · 65 games45% · 227 games
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyKingrd
53% · 161 game50% · 69 games
Spirit BreakerBb3px
Spirit Breaker
Slardar
SlardarFCR
56% · 8 games48% · 47 games
Ancient Apparitionso bad
Ancient Apparition
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKJ
52% · 186 games52% · 112 games
Dark Willowforcemajor
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct19:32
Keyd Stars 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingCostabile
55% · 51 game54% · 93 games
Naga Sirenv1olent-
Naga Siren
Timbersaw
TimbersawFCR
51% · 104 games53% · 71 game
InvokerAinkrad
Invoker
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit4nalog
47% · 103 games41% · 68 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKJ
49% · 63 games54% · 102 games
Pugnaso bad
Pugna
Dark Willow
Dark WillowKingrd
45% · 120 games53% · 107 games
Grimstrokeforcemajor
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction missed14:52
Keyd Stars 51%Nemiga Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkCostabile
55% · 110 games46% · 184 games
Morphlingv1olent-
Morphling
Primal Beast
Primal Beast4nalog
52% · 229 games50% · 84 games
ZeusAinkrad
Zeus
Dazzle
DazzleFCR
51% · 25 games49% · 98 games
BrewmasterBb3px
Brewmaster
Tiny
TinyKingrd
47% · 221 game52% · 366 games
Nature's Prophetforcemajor
Nature's Prophet
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKJ
53% · 206 games45% · 59 games
Lionso bad
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 53%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3